Case Opening Simulator

Fracture Case

Expected Value: $1.86

Net Expected Value: $1.26

Total Items: 69

Recommended Bankroll: $43.20

Cases Needed: 72

Success Rate: 75.0%

Your Bankroll Confidence (1000.0$): 99.94%

Items by Rarity

Blue (7 items, 79.92% chance, avg. $0.20, contributes $0.16 [8.6% of EV])

Item Name	Value	Drop Chance	EV Contribution
P250 Cassette	$0.13	11.417%	$0.01 [0.8%]
SG 553 Ol' Rusty	$0.13	11.417%	$0.01 [0.8%]
PP-Bizon Runic	$0.21	11.417%	$0.02 [1.3%]
SSG 08 Mainframe 001	$0.22	11.417%	$0.03 [1.3%]
P2000 Gnarled	$0.16	11.417%	$0.02 [1.0%]
Negev Ultralight	$0.20	11.417%	$0.02 [1.2%]
P90 Freight	$0.33	11.417%	$0.04 [2.0%]

Purple (5 items, 15.98% chance, avg. $1.35, contributes $0.22 [11.8% of EV])

Item Name	Value	Drop Chance	EV Contribution
MAG-7 Monster Call	$1.35	3.196%	$0.04 [2.3%]
MP5-SD Kitbash	$1.12	3.196%	$0.04 [1.9%]
Galil AR Connexion	$1.27	3.196%	$0.04 [2.2%]
MAC-10 Allure	$1.51	3.196%	$0.05 [2.6%]
Tec-9 Brother	$1.48	3.196%	$0.05 [2.5%]

Pink (3 items, 3.20% chance, avg. $7.92, contributes $0.25 [13.4% of EV])

Item Name	Value	Drop Chance	EV Contribution
Glock-18 Vogue	$7.43	1.067%	$0.08 [4.3%]
XM1014 Entombed	$7.85	1.067%	$0.08 [4.5%]
M4A4 Tooth Fairy	$8.48	1.067%	$0.09 [4.9%]

Red (2 items, 0.64% chance, avg. $50.35, contributes $0.32 [17.2% of EV])

Item Name	Value	Drop Chance	EV Contribution
AK-47 Legion of Anubis	$14.72	0.320%	$0.05 [2.5%]
Desert Eagle Printstream	$85.99	0.320%	$0.28 [14.8%]

Gold (52 items, 0.26% chance, avg. $352.34, contributes $0.92 [49.4% of EV])

Item Name	Value	Drop Chance	EV Contribution
Nomad Fade	$1012.79	0.005%	$0.05 [2.7%]
Nomad Night Stripe	$236.27	0.005%	$0.01 [0.6%]
Nomad Blue Steel	$386.11	0.005%	$0.02 [1.0%]
Nomad Stained	$309.46	0.005%	$0.02 [0.8%]
Nomad Case Hardened	$497.51	0.005%	$0.02 [1.3%]
Nomad Forest DDPAT	$192.40	0.005%	$0.01 [0.5%]
Nomad Boreal Forest	$180.26	0.005%	$0.01 [0.5%]
Nomad Crimson Web	$608.62	0.005%	$0.03 [1.6%]
Nomad Scorched	$227.46	0.005%	$0.01 [0.6%]
Nomad Safari Mesh	$156.67	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Nomad Vanilla	$414.86	0.005%	$0.02 [1.1%]
Nomad Urban Masked	$264.98	0.005%	$0.01 [0.7%]
Nomad Slaughter	$462.27	0.005%	$0.02 [1.2%]
Paracord Blue Steel	$181.71	0.005%	$0.01 [0.5%]
Paracord Case Hardened	$303.05	0.005%	$0.02 [0.8%]
Paracord Scorched	$154.76	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Paracord Forest DDPAT	$116.66	0.005%	$0.01 [0.3%]
Paracord Urban Masked	$167.48	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Paracord Vanilla	$163.81	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Paracord Fade	$492.16	0.005%	$0.02 [1.3%]
Paracord Slaughter	$269.74	0.005%	$0.01 [0.7%]
Paracord Stained	$165.99	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Paracord Boreal Forest	$153.64	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Paracord Crimson Web	$461.85	0.005%	$0.02 [1.2%]
Paracord Safari Mesh	$132.65	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Paracord Night Stripe	$187.81	0.005%	$0.01 [0.5%]
Skeleton Urban Masked	$331.33	0.005%	$0.02 [0.9%]
Skeleton Blue Steel	$562.30	0.005%	$0.03 [1.5%]
Skeleton Slaughter	$755.35	0.005%	$0.04 [2.0%]
Skeleton Fade	$1569.48	0.005%	$0.08 [4.2%]
Skeleton Stained	$510.88	0.005%	$0.03 [1.4%]
Skeleton Vanilla	$581.66	0.005%	$0.03 [1.6%]
Skeleton Case Hardened	$727.07	0.005%	$0.04 [2.0%]
Skeleton Forest DDPAT	$306.01	0.005%	$0.02 [0.8%]
Skeleton Boreal Forest	$305.67	0.005%	$0.02 [0.8%]
Skeleton Crimson Web	$1162.77	0.005%	$0.06 [3.1%]
Skeleton Scorched	$325.55	0.005%	$0.02 [0.9%]
Skeleton Safari Mesh	$258.27	0.005%	$0.01 [0.7%]
Skeleton Night Stripe	$406.62	0.005%	$0.02 [1.1%]
Survival Vanilla	$148.12	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Survival Fade	$450.32	0.005%	$0.02 [1.2%]
Survival Slaughter	$226.74	0.005%	$0.01 [0.6%]
Survival Blue Steel	$165.07	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Survival Stained	$152.32	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Survival Case Hardened	$236.38	0.005%	$0.01 [0.6%]
Survival Forest DDPAT	$126.88	0.005%	$0.01 [0.3%]
Survival Boreal Forest	$115.17	0.005%	$0.01 [0.3%]
Survival Crimson Web	$413.55	0.005%	$0.02 [1.1%]
Survival Scorched	$122.15	0.005%	$0.01 [0.3%]
Survival Safari Mesh	$108.70	0.005%	$0.01 [0.3%]
Survival Night Stripe	$184.66	0.005%	$0.01 [0.5%]
Survival Urban Masked	$167.85	0.005%	$0.01 [0.5%]

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