Case Opening Simulator

Horizon Case

Expected Value: $2.77

Net Expected Value: $0.97

Total Items: 69

Recommended Bankroll: $525.60

Cases Needed: 292

Success Rate: 75.0%

Items by Rarity

Blue (7 items, 79.92% chance, avg. $0.29, contributes $0.24 [8.7% of EV])

Item Name	Value	Drop Chance	EV Contribution
R8 Revolver Survivalist	$0.27	11.417%	$0.03 [1.1%]
MP9 Capillary	$0.23	11.417%	$0.03 [0.9%]
AUG Amber Slipstream	$0.25	11.417%	$0.03 [1.0%]
Tec-9 Snek-9	$0.30	11.417%	$0.03 [1.2%]
Glock-18 Warhawk	$0.35	11.417%	$0.04 [1.4%]
Dual Berettas Shred	$0.37	11.417%	$0.04 [1.5%]
P90 Traction	$0.29	11.417%	$0.03 [1.2%]

Purple (5 items, 15.98% chance, avg. $1.88, contributes $0.30 [10.8% of EV])

Item Name	Value	Drop Chance	EV Contribution
Nova Toy Soldier	$1.44	3.196%	$0.05 [1.7%]
G3SG1 High Seas	$2.31	3.196%	$0.07 [2.7%]
CZ75-Auto Eco	$1.42	3.196%	$0.05 [1.6%]
MP7 Powercore	$2.70	3.196%	$0.09 [3.1%]
AWP PAW	$1.52	3.196%	$0.05 [1.8%]

Pink (3 items, 3.20% chance, avg. $22.36, contributes $0.72 [26.0% of EV])

Item Name	Value	Drop Chance	EV Contribution
FAMAS Eye of Athena	$12.71	1.067%	$0.14 [4.9%]
Sawed-Off Devourer	$16.03	1.067%	$0.17 [6.2%]
M4A1-S Nightmare	$38.36	1.067%	$0.41 [14.8%]

Red (2 items, 0.64% chance, avg. $92.83, contributes $0.59 [21.3% of EV])

Item Name	Value	Drop Chance	EV Contribution
Desert Eagle Code Red	$62.68	0.320%	$0.20 [7.3%]
AK-47 Neon Rider	$122.98	0.320%	$0.39 [14.2%]

Gold (52 items, 0.26% chance, avg. $353.92, contributes $0.92 [33.3% of EV])

Item Name	Value	Drop Chance	EV Contribution
Navaja Night Stripe	$114.31	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Navaja Case Hardened	$166.79	0.005%	$0.01 [0.3%]
Navaja Crimson Web	$265.93	0.005%	$0.01 [0.5%]
Navaja Blue Steel	$103.54	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Navaja Stained	$109.91	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Navaja Urban Masked	$124.40	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Navaja Fade	$270.46	0.005%	$0.01 [0.5%]
Navaja Safari Mesh	$104.37	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Navaja Scorched	$104.12	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Navaja Boreal Forest	$105.26	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Navaja Slaughter	$134.53	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Navaja Vanilla	$133.80	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Navaja Forest DDPAT	$115.07	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Stiletto Stained	$355.25	0.005%	$0.02 [0.6%]
Stiletto Urban Masked	$311.80	0.005%	$0.02 [0.6%]
Stiletto Blue Steel	$440.38	0.005%	$0.02 [0.8%]
Stiletto Boreal Forest	$255.03	0.005%	$0.01 [0.5%]
Stiletto Case Hardened	$451.61	0.005%	$0.02 [0.8%]
Stiletto Crimson Web	$716.06	0.005%	$0.04 [1.3%]
Stiletto Fade	$1052.31	0.005%	$0.05 [1.9%]
Stiletto Forest DDPAT	$252.71	0.005%	$0.01 [0.5%]
Stiletto Night Stripe	$305.67	0.005%	$0.02 [0.6%]
Stiletto Safari Mesh	$224.59	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Stiletto Scorched	$220.79	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Stiletto Slaughter	$476.51	0.005%	$0.02 [0.9%]
Stiletto Vanilla	$354.16	0.005%	$0.02 [0.6%]
Talon Stained	$419.31	0.005%	$0.02 [0.8%]
Talon Forest DDPAT	$364.02	0.005%	$0.02 [0.7%]
Talon Scorched	$407.40	0.005%	$0.02 [0.7%]
Talon Urban Masked	$341.45	0.005%	$0.02 [0.6%]
Talon Vanilla	$474.42	0.005%	$0.02 [0.9%]
Talon Blue Steel	$496.89	0.005%	$0.02 [0.9%]
Talon Boreal Forest	$332.99	0.005%	$0.02 [0.6%]
Talon Case Hardened	$772.07	0.005%	$0.04 [1.4%]
Talon Crimson Web	$929.73	0.005%	$0.05 [1.7%]
Talon Fade	$1527.16	0.005%	$0.08 [2.8%]
Talon Night Stripe	$575.56	0.005%	$0.03 [1.0%]
Talon Safari Mesh	$361.16	0.005%	$0.02 [0.7%]
Talon Slaughter	$759.36	0.005%	$0.04 [1.4%]
Ursus Fade	$636.16	0.005%	$0.03 [1.2%]
Ursus Crimson Web	$636.08	0.005%	$0.03 [1.2%]
Ursus Safari Mesh	$132.32	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Ursus Scorched	$145.51	0.005%	$0.01 [0.3%]
Ursus Forest DDPAT	$134.83	0.005%	$0.01 [0.2%]
Ursus Case Hardened	$239.67	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Ursus Boreal Forest	$151.95	0.005%	$0.01 [0.3%]
Ursus Blue Steel	$227.47	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Ursus Stained	$149.44	0.005%	$0.01 [0.3%]
Ursus Vanilla	$245.25	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]
Ursus Slaughter	$313.60	0.005%	$0.02 [0.6%]
Ursus Urban Masked	$162.94	0.005%	$0.01 [0.3%]
Ursus Night Stripe	$197.53	0.005%	$0.01 [0.4%]

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